PSA 9 Values Vs. Raw Cards in 2023

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It is widely accepted that the value of a PSA 9 graded card is similar (perhaps 1.5X) to that same card’s raw (ungraded) value. That said, this will vary depending on the popularity and rarity of the card (namely, its graded population), along with the raw card’s value.

Meaning, a card with a high pop graded as a PSA 9 should be closer in value to its raw counterpart than a card with a low pop (which would be expected to be more valuable than a raw version of that same card). In addition, it seems that higher-valued raw cards valued are closer in price to their PSA 9 counterpart than cards valued lower (examples down below).

As such, you’ll probably see high-value modern raw cards closer to their PSA 9 counterparts in value when compared to vintage low-value base cards.

For me, I view raw as the equivalent of what the PSA 9 grade represents (Mint).

Given that, unless it's a super cheap card that should have never been graded, I value PSA 9s at the value of Raw + Bulk Grading Fee.
— JT – GlutenFreeCards (@GlutenFreeCards) July 29, 2021

(Some people might read this and understand it to mean that when buying a raw card, you can expect it to be in PSA 9 condition. However, I’d caution against such thinking given that “raw” could mean any condition type. In the above example, we are making the assumption that the raw card is in at least “PSA 9” condition, or “mint.”)

Again, I must also stress there are differing opinions on this, and the answer is reliant on the card itself.

Let’s take a look at a few examples between some of the hottest rookie cards, and those with high and low population counts to get a better feel for what I’m talking about.

Starting with one of the hottest football cards on the planet right now, the 2022 Brock Purdy Optic base card (raw) has sold close to 100 times over the last week. Everything of Purdy’s is pretty inflated right now—I mean, this base Optic RC has an average sales price of $19.04 over the last 14 days, which is extremely high for a base card. As such you’d expect the PSA 9 copy of this card to be inflated as well, and it is, selling at an average of $44.28 over the last 14 days, or 2.33 times that of raw.

Moving on to a more stable rookie (or at least one that isn’t currently being impacted by a hot start), let’s take a look at the 2019 Prizm Ja Morant. The average sales price over the last 14 days of the base raw is $10.93, while the PSA 9’s average sales value is $23.03 (a difference of 2.11x). That said, a PSA 9 silver is only 1.33x the ungraded version, averaging $143 in sales value compared to the raw $107.

So in this example with Morant, the higher-valued raw silver is much closer to the PSA 9’s value on a percentage basis.

Looking at the above, the PSA 10 base Morant has an huge pop of nearly 17K, which isn’t unheard of for modern cards.

Let’s check out a vintage example using a card with a lower population, traveling back to 1982 with this Lee Smith Rookie card. A PSA 9 has a pop of 784, and has a 14-day average sales value of $45.50, which is a whopping 11.69x that of the raw version ($3.89).

And last, how about a higher-valued modern card, like this Anthony Edwards 2021 One and One Downtown SSP. Raw, this card is averaging $750 in value over the last 30 days, and as a PSA 9, it’s averaging nearly the same ($730).